What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Remo and 1.9 from Flamengo RJ, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Flamengo RJ to win. Flamengo RJ shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Remo only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 56%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
