How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Cruzeiro host São Paulo at the Mineirão on 8 October in a Brasileirão Série A clash that could decide a spot in the coveted European places. Cruzeiro sit sixth with 45 points from 28 games and a modest +2 goal difference, just one point ahead of Bahia and two behind Atlético-MG. São Paulo are further down the table and will need a result to stay in the hunt. Both teams have been inconsistent, but the numbers show a tight, low-scoring encounter is likely, with Cruzeiro expected to edge the game.
Cruzeiro come into this match on the back of two straight wins. Their last eight outings have produced six victories and only two defeats. The most recent results were a 3-1 away win over Vitória, another 3-1 win at Vitória, a 2-1 loss to Santos away, a 3-1 home win over Athletico-PR, a 3-1 loss to Vasco away and a 2-1 home win over Flamengo. In those eight games they have scored 18 goals and let in 11. Every match has featured three or more goals and both sides have found the net each time. The last three games at home have all been wins, showing they are comfortable on their own turf.
São Paulo’s form has been less encouraging. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn one and lost four. Their recent results include a 2-1 home loss to Santos, a 1-0 home win over Internacional, a 2-0 away defeat to Palmeiras, a 2-0 home win over Atlético-MG, a 2-1 home win over Bragantino and a 1-0 away loss to Chapecoense. They have scored eight and conceded nine in that span, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in two matches. On the road they have lost their last three away games, the most recent being just five days ago.
The two sides have met five times before. Cruzeiro have won once, São Paulo three times and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.2 goals per match. The most recent encounter was a 4-1 victory for São Paulo on 4 April. Given the recent goal averages and the fact that both teams have been involved in games with multiple goals, this fixture is likely to follow a similar pattern – a modest goal tally with both sides capable of scoring but not flooding the net.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The expected total of 2.2 goals fits a cagey, low-scoring game and the price of 1.31 is longer than our reading of the match. We think the chance of the game staying under 3.5 goals is about 80 percent, making the price attractive. For the pick to fail, both teams would need to break their recent patterns and produce a high-scoring affair, something the data does not support.
Recent results
Sao Paulo have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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