How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Flamengo RJ or Draw 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Santos host Flamengo RJ at the Maracanã on 8 October in a Brasileirão clash that could reshape the top of the table. Santos sit eighth with 41 points from 28 games and a modest +2 goal difference. They are just two points behind Atlético-MG in the coveted Libertadores spots and three ahead of Coritiba. Flamengo RJ sit comfortably on top with 60 points, a massive +32 goal difference and a three-point cushion over Palmeiras in second. A win for the champions would stretch their lead, while a draw would keep the race tight. For Santos, a victory would pull them into the European-place zone and put pressure on the leaders.
Santos arrive on a remarkable eight-match run that has produced seven wins and one draw. Their most recent fixtures have all ended 2-1 victories – first against São Paulo away, then again against São Paulo away, and before that a 2-1 win at Remo away. At home they beat Cruzeiro 2-1 and Atlético-MG 2-0, and they also travelled to beat Internacional 3-2. In those eight games they have scored 15 goals and let in only seven, keeping two clean sheets. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides found the net in six of them. Their last three home outings have yielded two wins and a draw, the most recent being five days ago.
Flamengo RJ come into the game after a seven-game unbeaten spell, with six wins and one draw in their last eight contests. Their latest results include a 2-1 home win over Bragantino, a 1-1 draw with Independiente del Valle at home, and a 2-1 victory over Corinthians at home. Away they have beaten Independiente del Valle 2-0, Remo 1-0 and Mirassol 2-0. Over those eight games they have scored 14 times while conceding just five, and they have kept four clean sheets. Four of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in four of them. Their most recent appearance was 18 days ago.
The two clubs have met five times in recent history, with Flamengo RJ winning three and Santos two. Those games have been high-scoring, averaging 3.6 goals per meeting. The latest encounter on 5 April saw Flamengo RJ triumph 3-1 at home. Given the goal-rich nature of their meetings and the attacking form both sides have shown, we can expect another open contest with chances at both ends. Santos have a 69 % chance of scoring at least once and a 31 % chance of a brace, while Flamengo RJ enjoy a 79 % chance to find the net and a 45 % chance of scoring twice or more.
We back Flamengo RJ or a draw. The price of 1.23 is shorter than our own reading of the game, giving us a safer way to back the stronger side without needing an exact scoreline. Our confidence in this outcome is 72 %. For the pick to fail, Santos would need to break their defensive record and win outright, or the match would have to end with both teams failing to score. Either scenario looks unlikely given the recent form and the numbers we have.
Recent results
Flamengo RJ have won three of the last five meetings.
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