How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Vitoria and 0.9 from Chapecoense-SC, so Vitoria come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Vitoria to score 2 or fewer. This is about Vitoria's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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