How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Flamengo RJ to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Flamengo RJ look clearly stronger than Mirassol on the numbers we have. We expect about 2.3 goals for Flamengo and just under one for Mirassol, so the game should have chances at both ends. It won’t be a defensive slog; there should be room for attacks from either side.
Looking back, Flamengo have been decent in their last five league outings, winning three, drawing one and losing one. Mirassol have struggled, failing to win any of their last five games and taking three straight draws. In the three meetings between the clubs, Flamengo have won twice and drawn once, with an average of five goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 5-1 win for Flamengo at Mirassol’s ground on 16 August.
Our pick is a Flamengo win. The numbers put Flamengo at about a 72 % chance to come out on top and the price of 1.25 is shorter than we think the game is worth. That makes the selection look clean and simple compared with looking for a bigger payout elsewhere.
For this to go wrong, Mirassol would need to find a way to shut Flamengo down and score, which they have not done in recent games. A draw or loss for Flamengo would be a surprise given their stronger record and the goal expectations. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know football can always produce an upset.
Recent meetings
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