How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Bragantino and 1.1 from Bahia, so Bragantino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bahia come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 81%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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