How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Remo and 1.2 from Coritiba, so Remo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.5-1.2) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 55%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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