How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Fluminense and 0.9 from Coritiba, so Fluminense come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Coritiba come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Fluminense to score 2 or fewer. This is about Fluminense's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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