How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Corinthians to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Internacional host Corinthians at home in the Brasileirão Série A on 7 October 2026. Internacional sit 18th of 20 with 28 points and a –6 goal difference, just inside the relegation zone. One point separates them from Grêmio above and five points from Remo below. Corinthians are a little higher, 14th with 32 points and a –3 goal difference, one point behind Vitória and level with Mirassol. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the lower half, so a win or even a draw could be important for their survival hopes.
Internacional have played eight games in their recent run, two wins, two draws and four losses. The most recent results are a 1-0 defeat to São Paulo away, another 1-0 loss to São Paulo away, a 2-1 victory over Chapecoense-SC away, and a 2-1 win over Chapecoense at home. Before that they fell 3-2 to Santos at home and 3-2 to Bahia away. That gives them nine goals scored and eleven conceded in the stretch, only one clean sheet and three games without scoring. Four of those eight matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The side arrives on two straight defeats and has not played for 17 days.
Corinthians’ last eight outings have been far tougher. They have not won any, drawn one and lost seven. Their latest games are a 3-1 loss to Fluminense at home, a 1-0 defeat to Estudiantes at home, a 2-1 loss to Flamengo RJ away, a 1-1 draw with Estudiantes away, a 2-1 loss to Chapecoense-SC at home and a 1-0 loss to Santos at home. In those eight games they have scored six and let in 14, failing to find the net in two matches. Five of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them. The team comes in on three straight defeats and also last played 17 days ago.
The two clubs have met five times before. Internacional have won two of those meetings, Corinthians one and two ended in draws. The games have averaged 2.8 goals each. The most recent encounter was a 0-1 win for Internacional on 5 April 2026. Given the low scoring trend for both sides in recent weeks and the fact that Internacional have kept only one clean sheet in their last eight games, we expect a tight affair with few chances.
Our pick is Corinthians to score one goal or fewer. The price of 1.35 matches our view of the game. We think the chance of this happening is about 73 out of 100. For the bet to fail, Corinthians would need to find the net twice, which seems unlikely given they have scored only six times in their last eight matches and have failed to score in two of those games. If they manage to break through more than once, the price would not be worth the risk.
Recent results
Internacional have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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