What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Gremio and 0.9 from Chapecoense-SC, so Gremio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Gremio to win. Gremio are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Chapecoense-SC only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
