How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Gremio and 1.0 from Chapecoense-SC, so Gremio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.1 goals (xG 2.1-1.0) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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