How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Mirassol and 1.6 from Palmeiras, so Palmeiras come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.1-1.6) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 53%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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