How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Santos to score 1 or fewer 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Sao Paulo host Santos in a San-São derby on 2 October in the Brasileirão Série A. The match is a clash of a team that sits in the top half of the table with a mixed recent record and a side that is sitting eighth, just inside the European-qualification places. Sao Paulo have been inconsistent, winning three, drawing two and losing three of their last eight games. Santos are on a hot streak, five wins in a row and a solid run that has them two points ahead of Atlético-MG and level with Coritiba. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but the stakes are higher for Santos, who want to keep the momentum and stay in the euro spots.
Sao Paulo’s last eight outings have been a roller-coaster. They began the run with a 1-0 win over Internacional at home, then slipped 2-0 to Palmeiras away. After that they bounced back with a 2-0 victory against Atlético-MG at home and a 2-1 win over Bragantino, also at home. The next two games were defeats – 1-0 at Chapecoense-SC and a 1-1 draw with Coritiba on their own turf. In those eight matches they have scored eight goals and let in eight. They kept two clean sheets and failed to find the net in two games. Four of the games saw three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. Their last appearance was 12 days ago.
Santos arrive on a much brighter note. In their previous eight games they have won six, drawn one and lost one. The most recent result was a 2-1 away win at Remo, which kept their winning streak alive. Before that they beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at home, then Atlético-MG 2-0 at home, and enjoyed a 3-2 victory away at Internacional. They also edged Corinthians 1-0 away and drew 1-1 with Mirassol at home. Over those eight matches they have scored 14 goals and conceded seven. They kept three clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Four of the games produced three or more goals and both teams scored in four of them. Their last game was 13 days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the games are usually tight. In the last five meetings Sao Paulo have won twice, Santos once and two matches ended in draws. The average number of goals in those encounters is 2.2. The most recent meeting, on 4 February, finished 1-1. That result suggests a balanced contest where both sides can find the net but are also capable of limiting each other’s chances.
Our view is that Santos are likely to score one goal or none. Their recent form shows they average just over one goal per game and they have kept three clean sheets in the last eight matches. The price of 1.32 is shorter than we think the game will be, which makes the bet attractive. For our pick to fail, Santos would need to score two or more goals, something that has only happened in about a quarter of their recent games. We feel the chance of them staying under two goals is high, and the price looks good for that outcome.
Recent results
Sao Paulo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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