What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Vitoria and 1.0 from Gremio, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 62%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. We make it about 62% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
