How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Vitoria to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Vitoria and 1.1 from Gremio, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vitoria come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Vitoria to win. Vitoria are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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