How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Arda Kardzhali to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 0.7 from Botev Vratsa, so Arda Kardzhali come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Arda Kardzhali to win. Arda Kardzhali are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.7), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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