How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made CSKA Sofia to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from CSKA Sofia and 0.7 from Cherno More Varna, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
CSKA Sofia come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.7), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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