How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Ludogorets Razgrad to win 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Spartak Varna and 2.3 from Ludogorets Razgrad, so Ludogorets Razgrad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ludogorets Razgrad to win. Ludogorets Razgrad shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.3), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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