What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Botev Plovdiv and 1.7 from Levski Sofia, so Levski Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Botev Plovdiv come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Levski Sofia to win. Levski Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.7), and we make them about 63% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Botev Plovdiv only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 63%: a lean, not a lock.
