How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Dunav Ruse and 1.4 from PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 to win. PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.4), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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