How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Arda Kardzhali to win 48%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Arda Kardzhali and 0.9 from Cherno More Varna, so Arda Kardzhali come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Arda Kardzhali come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arda Kardzhali to win. Arda Kardzhali are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.9), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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