How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made CSKA Sofia to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.4 from CSKA Sofia, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
CSKA Sofia come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.3), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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