How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Dunav Ruse to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Dunav Ruse host Botev Vratsa at their home ground in the Parva Liga on 19 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone. Dunav Ruse are bottom of the table, 14th out of 14, with four points from nine games and a goal difference of minus nine. One place above them sits Lokomotiv Sofia 1929, level on points. Botev Vratsa sit in ninth place, also in the drop zone, with eight points from nine games and a goal difference of minus ten. Two spots above them is Spartak Varna on 10 points, while Septemvri Sofia sit just below Vratsa on eight points. The match could move either side closer to safety or deeper into trouble, so both will be keen for points.
Dunav Ruse have not enjoyed many good results this season. In their last three outings they lost 3-0 to Celtic, then fell 4-1 at the hands of Kilmarnock, and most recently they were beaten 2-0 by Lokomotiv Sofia. Those three defeats add up to nine goals conceded and none scored. The run leaves them with a very poor defensive record and a lack of firepower in front of goal.
Botev Vratsa’s recent form is also shaky but shows a slightly better finish. They were beaten 2-1 by Spartak Varna, then suffered a 3-0 loss to Septemvri Sofia, and most recently drew 1-1 with Lokomotiv Sofia. The draw gave them a goal and a point, ending a string of defeats. Scoring in the last game suggests they can find the net, even if they still concede heavily.
The two sides have met before, and the numbers suggest a low-scoring affair. Dunav Ruse are rated to score about 1.3 goals per game, while Botev Vratsa average 1.1. Both teams have a high chance of scoring at least once – 72 % for Ruse and 68 % for Vratsa – but the chance of either side scoring twice is under 40 %. This points to a tight contest where a single goal could decide the result.
We pick Dunav Ruse to win. The price of 2.75 matches our view of the game. Ruse are the stronger side on the numbers and have a 37 % chance of taking all three points. The pick looks clean because a win would be a small step up for the bottom club and the price is attractive. It would go wrong if Vratsa manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, or if Ruse fail to break down a disciplined defence and concede first. In those cases the result could swing the other way.
Recent results
Botev Vratsa have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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