What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Septemvri Sofia and 1.5 from Botev Plovdiv, so Botev Plovdiv come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Botev Plovdiv to win. Botev Plovdiv shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.5), and we make them about 45% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.84, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Botev Plovdiv have won two of their last five.
