How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Spartak Varna to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Spartak Varna and 1.4 from PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Spartak Varna come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Spartak Varna to win. Spartak Varna are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.4), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Spartak Varna have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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