How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Levski Sofia (Draw No Bet) 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tilted in Levski’s favour. The numbers show Levski scoring about 1.7 goals while Botev are expected to get less than one. That gap makes the match feel open enough for a few chances, but the stronger side should have the edge.
Recent results underline the imbalance. Botev have lost four of their last five league outings and are coming in on two straight defeats. Levski have been a bit steadier, with one win, two draws and two losses in the same span. The pattern suggests Botev are struggling while Levski are able to pick up points away from home.
We back Levski Sofia on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.27 matches our view of the game, and the bet only loses if Levski are beaten outright. With an 80 % chance of success in our eyes, the selection feels safe and the odds are attractive.
The pick would go wrong if Botev manage to hold Levski to a draw or pull off a surprise win. That would require a sudden lift in Botev’s form and a slip from Levski that we do not see coming. Our confidence is strong, but we acknowledge the small risk that a tight game could deny us.
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