How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made CSKA 1948 or Draw 85%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from CSKA 1948 and 0.8 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv, so CSKA 1948 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
CSKA 1948 come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: CSKA 1948 or Draw. This covers CSKA 1948 or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.12, which works out at about 89 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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