How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Slavia Sofia (Draw No Bet) 72%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Slavia Sofia and 0.8 from Septemvri Sofia, so Slavia Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Slavia Sofia (Draw No Bet). Slavia Sofia are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Slavia Sofia defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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