How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Botev Plovdiv or Draw 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 and 1.4 from Botev Plovdiv, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Botev Plovdiv or Draw. This covers Botev Plovdiv or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
PFC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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