How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Ludogorets Razgrad to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.6 from Ludogorets Razgrad, so Ludogorets Razgrad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ludogorets Razgrad to win. Ludogorets Razgrad shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.6), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ludogorets Razgrad have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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