How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made CSKA Sofia to win 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from CSKA Sofia and 0.6 from Slavia Sofia, so CSKA Sofia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: CSKA Sofia to win. CSKA Sofia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.6), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Slavia Sofia have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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