How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made CSKA 1948 to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Slavia Sofia host CSKA 1948 at home in a Parva Liga clash on 18 September. Slavia sit seventh out of fourteen with eleven points from nine games and a +2 goal difference, just inside the European-qualification places. One spot above them, Botev Plovdiv sit two points clear, while Spartak Varna trail by a single point. CSKA 1948 sit a strong fourth, nineteen points from the same number of matches and a +8 goal difference, four points behind leaders Ludogorets Razgrad and three ahead of Arda Kardzhali. Both teams are looking to improve their standing – Slavia hoping to stay in the euro spots and CSKA aiming to close the gap to the top.
Slavia’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three league outings they beat Dunav Ruse 2-1 at home, then suffered a 1-0 defeat away to Levski Sofia, and followed that with a 2-1 home win over Pafos. The run gives them two wins and one loss, scoring five goals while conceding three. They have kept one clean sheet and have been shut out once in this spell. Overall they have shown they can find the net but also can be vulnerable defensively.
CSKA 1948’s last six games have produced three wins and three defeats, with no draws. The most recent result was a 2-1 victory over Dunav Ruse at home. Before that they fell 1-0 away to Levski Sofia, then beat Pafos 2-1 at home and Buducnost Podgorica 1-0 at home. Their run ended with two defeats to FCSB – a 3-2 loss away and a 1-0 loss at home. In those six matches they have scored seven and let in seven, kept one clean sheet and failed to score in two games. Three of the fixtures featured three or more goals, and in three both sides hit the net.
When the two clubs meet, the numbers suggest a low-scoring affair. We expect just over two goals in total, with Slavia likely to score once and CSKA about 1.3 times. The chance of Slavia finding the net at all is 63 per cent, while CSKA’s chance sits at 73 per cent. Both sides have a modest probability of scoring twice or more – 27 per cent for Slavia and 38 per cent for CSKA. This points to a tight game where a single goal could decide the outcome.
Our pick is CSKA 1948 to win. The price of 1.85 is shorter than we think the game is worth, but the odds still give us a decent return for a side that looks stronger on the numbers. We give the result a 42 per cent chance of happening. For CSKA to miss out they would need to be shut out while Slavia manage to score, or the match end in a draw. If either of those occurs the bet would fail, but we feel the away side’s better goal record and higher scoring probability make them the safer choice.
Recent results
CSKA 1948 have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
