What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Levski Sofia and 1.0 from Ludogorets Razgrad, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ludogorets Razgrad come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Levski Sofia to win. Levski Sofia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.99, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ludogorets Razgrad have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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