Augsburg v Leverkusen: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 67%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Augsburg host Bayer Leverkusen at the Allianz Arena on 12 September 2026 in a Bundesliga clash that could tighten the race for European places. Augsburg sit third in the table with seven points from three games and a healthy +6 goal difference. They are two points behind fourth-placed Borussia Dortmund and one point ahead of Elversberg in the relegation-danger zone. Leverkusen are sixth, also on four points from three matches but with a +3 goal difference, level on points with Bayern München above them and Mainz 05 below. Both sides are close in the standings and a win will move them up the ladder, while a draw keeps the gap narrow.

Augsburg arrive on the back of three straight victories. In their last eight games they have won six, drawn one and lost one, scoring 20 and conceding 10. The most recent results are a 4-1 away win over Frankfurt, another 4-1 win over Ein Frankfurt away, a 3-0 home triumph over Schalke 04, a 4-0 defeat at Union Berlin, a 3-1 home win over Mönchengladbach and a 3-1 away win at Werder Bremen. At home they have not lost in three games, recording two wins and a draw. They have kept one clean sheet in that run and have failed to score only once. Most of those matches have been high-scoring, with seven of the eight games producing three or more goals and both sides finding the net in six of them.

Leverkusen’s form is more mixed. Over their last eight fixtures they have won four, drawn one and lost three, scoring 16 and letting in 11. Their recent results include a 4-0 home win over Union Berlin, a 3-2 away loss to Elversberg, a 1-1 home draw with Hamburg, a 3-1 away defeat to Stuttgart, a 4-1 home victory over RB Leipzig and a 2-1 away win at FC Köln. On the road they have been even, with two wins and two defeats in their last four away games. They have kept two clean sheets in this spell and, like Augsburg, six of the eight matches have featured three or more goals with both teams scoring in each of those games. Their most recent outing was a 7-day-old defeat, but the scoreline shows they can still find the net.

The two clubs have met five times before, with Leverkusen winning three and Augsburg two. Those games have averaged 2.4 goals. The latest encounter on 18 April 2026 ended in a 2-1 win for Augsburg at Leverkusen. Given the recent high-scoring patterns for both sides and the balanced head-to-head record, we expect another open affair with chances at both ends rather than a defensive slog.

We think both teams will score. Augsburg are expected to net about 1.4 goals and Leverkusen about 1.8, giving a total of just over three goals. The chance of both sides finding the net sits at 67 per cent and the price of 1.44 matches our view of the game. The pick looks good if the match stays open and each side creates at least one clear chance. It could go wrong if one defence shuts down the opposition completely or if a single early goal forces a very cautious approach, limiting the chances for the trailing side.