What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Augsburg and 1.8 from Leverkusen, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.3-1.8), landing about 64% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. The price is shorter than our own read of about 64%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
