Mainz v Ein Frankfurt: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Mainz host Eintracht Frankfurt at the Bundesliga on 12 September 2026. Mainz sit seventh in the 18-team table, four points clear of the three games they have left. They are just one place above Bayer Leverkusen and one place above Frankfurt, who sit eighth with the same points gap. Both clubs are close in the standings and a win will keep them in the mix for a European spot. The numbers show Mainz as the stronger side, but both sides are likely to create chances.

In their last eight matches Mainz have won four, drawn two and lost two. The most recent results were a 5-0 win away at Hamburger SV, another 5-0 win away at Hamburg, a 0-0 draw with Paderborn at home, a 2-0 win away at Heidenheim, a 3-1 loss at home to Union Berlin and a 2-1 win away at St Pauli. That gives them two straight victories coming into this game. Across those eight games they have scored 19 goals and let in nine, keeping four clean sheets and being shut out once. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Eintracht Frankfurt’s last eight outings have been tougher. They have one win, three draws and four defeats. Their recent scores are a 4-1 loss at home to Augsburg, a 3-3 draw away at Union Berlin, a 2-2 draw at home to Stuttgart, a 3-2 loss away to Dortmund, a 2-1 loss at home to Hamburg and a 1-1 draw away at Augsburg. They have now gone seven games without a win. On the road in their last four matches they have one win, two draws and one loss. In total they have scored 13 and conceded 19, and eight of those games have produced three or more goals with both teams finding the net each time.

When the two clubs have met in the last five meetings the results have been evenly split: two wins for Mainz, two wins for Frankfurt and one draw. Those games have averaged 2.2 goals. The most recent encounter was on 22 March 2026, when Mainz edged Frankfurt 2-1. Given the recent form of both sides and the history of relatively open matches, we expect another game with chances at both ends rather than a defensive stalemate.

Our pick is for both teams to score. The chance of both sides finding the net is about 66 %. The price of 1.48 matches our view of the game. For the bet to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet. That would require Mainz to shut out Frankfurt or Frankfurt to hold Mainz scoreless, which looks unlikely given the scoring rates of 1.7 and 1.4 goals per team and the frequency of three-goal games in their recent runs.