How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Dortmund to win 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Dortmund and 0.8 from Paderborn, so Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Dortmund come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dortmund to win. Dortmund are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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