Freiburg v M'gladbach: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Both teams to score 62%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Freiburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the start of the Bundesliga season on 12 September 2026. Freiburg sit top of the 18-team table with nine points from three games and a +9 goal difference. Mönchengladbach are down at the bottom, also on zero points and a –9 goal difference. The gap between first and last is huge, and a win for the visitors would do little to lift them out of the relegation zone, while a slip for Freiburg would see them lose ground to Dortmund, who sit just one place below them.

Freiburg come into this clash on the back of three straight victories. Their recent run includes a 1-0 win away at Paderborn, a 4-1 demolition of Werder Bremen at home, and another 4-1 triumph over RB Leipzig at home. Before that they lost 3-2 away to Hamburg, drew 1-1 with Wolfsburg at home and suffered a 4-0 defeat away at Dortmund. In eight games they have scored 15 and let in 11, keeping two clean sheets and failing to find the net only once. At home they have been unbeaten in four matches, winning three and drawing one.

Mönchengladbach have struggled to find consistency. Their last eight outings produced two wins, two draws and four losses. Most recently they fell 4-3 at home to Elversberg and were beaten 3-0 away by RB Leipzig. Before that they enjoyed a 4-0 home victory over Hoffenheim, lost 3-1 away to Augsburg, edged Dortmund 1-0 at home and drew 0-0 away at Wolfsburg. Over those eight games they have scored ten and conceded twelve, with three clean sheets but also three games where they did not score. On the road they have not won in four attempts, drawing once and losing three times.

The two sides have met five times before, with Freiburg winning four and one draw. Those games have produced an average of 2.6 goals. The most recent encounter on 22 February 2026 ended 2-1 to Freiburg. Given the history of relatively open scorelines and the fact that both teams have shown the ability to find the net, we expect another match with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided shut-out.

Our pick is both teams to score. Freiburg average 1.8 goals per game and have an 85 % chance of scoring at least once, while Mönchengladbach average 1.2 and have a 70 % chance of scoring. We see a 62 % chance that both sides will hit the net, and the price of 1.59 matches our view of the game. For the pick to fail, Freiburg would need to keep a clean sheet or Mönchengladbach would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from either side – something the recent results do not suggest.