FC Koln v M'gladbach: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the RheinEnergieStadion on 11 October. Köln sit 14th in the 18-team league with four points from four games and a goal difference of minus three. One place above them, Eintracht Frankfurt are just a point clear, while Paderborn sit directly below with the same points. Gladbach are at the very bottom, 18th, with no points from four matches and a minus ten goal difference. Three places separate them from safety, Hoffenheim being three points ahead. Both clubs are fighting for survival, but Köln have the home advantage and a slightly better record on paper.

Köln’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight outings they have managed only one win, two draws and five defeats. The most recent result was a 2-2 draw with Viktoria Köln 1904 at home. Before that they lost 2-1 away to Hamburger SV twice in a row, then drew 1-1 with Werder Bremen at home, suffered a 4-1 loss away to Stuttgart and earlier beat Hoffenheim 3-2 at home. That run means they have gone five games without a win. In those eight games Köln have scored 11 goals and let in 21, with seven matches seeing three or more goals and both sides scoring in eight of them. Their last match was eight days ago.

Gladbach have not been any better. Over their last eight games they have recorded two wins, one draw and five defeats. The latest was a 4-3 loss at home to Mainz. Prior to that they were thrashed 5-0 away by Freiburg, fell 4-3 at home to Elversberg, lost 3-0 away to RB Leipzig, then enjoyed a 4-0 home win over Hoffenheim before going down 3-1 away to Augsburg. This means they arrive on four straight defeats, with no road win in their last four away games – one draw and three losses. In the eight-game stretch they have scored 12 and conceded 19, keeping three clean sheets and failing to find the net in three matches. Their most recent appearance was 22 days ago.

The two clubs have met five times before. Köln have won once, Gladglass have won once and three games ended in draws. Those encounters have been high-scoring, averaging four goals per match. The latest meeting on 21 March produced a 3-3 thriller, showing that both sides are capable of finding the net against each other. Given the recent goal-rich games and the open nature of their previous clashes, we can expect another match with chances at both ends rather than a defensive slog.

Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides average close to two goals each per game and the chance of each finding the net is high – 86 % for Köln and 77 % for Gladbach. The price of 1.48 matches our view of the game. We think a goal from each side is the most likely outcome, giving us a 66 % chance of success. It would only go wrong if one team shuts out the other, which seems unlikely given the recent high-scoring history and the need for points at this stage of the season.