How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Hoffenheim and 1.3 from Hamburg, so Hoffenheim come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.3 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.3), landing about 63% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hoffenheim have won two of the last two meetings.
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