How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Freiburg to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Freiburg and 1.1 from Schalke 04, so Freiburg come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Freiburg to win. Freiburg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Freiburg have won two of the last two meetings.
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