How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from FC Koln and 1.3 from Werder Bremen, so FC Koln come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Werder Bremen have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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