How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Freiburg come into this game as the clear favourite. Their recent run of four straight wins shows they are in good shape, while Werder Bremen have struggled, picking up just one win and three defeats in their last five league outings. The numbers we expect – about 1.7 goals for Freiburg and 1.1 for Bremen – point to a match that could have a few chances on both ends, but Freiburg should have the edge overall.
Looking at the recent head-to-head record, Freiburg have dominated, winning four of the last five meetings. The only Bremen win came a while back, and the most recent clash ended 1-0 to Freiburg. Those games have averaged 2.8 goals, which matches the total we expect for this encounter. The pattern suggests that while Bremen can find the net, Freiburg usually keep control and score more often.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides have enough attacking threat to get a goal – roughly 1.7 for Freiburg and 1.1 for Bremen – and the 58% chance we assign feels right. The price of 1.68 is close to our own view of the game, so it looks attractive for a simple bet on both sides hitting the net.
The bet could go wrong if Bremen fail to break down a solid Freiburg defence and the match ends 1-0 or 2-0 the way the last meeting did. If the game turns into a tight, low-scoring affair, our view would be tested. We still hold the idea fairly strongly, but we know a clean sheet for either side would flip the outcome.
Recent meetings
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