What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Freiburg and 1.1 from Werder Bremen, so Freiburg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Freiburg come into this on three straight wins. Werder Bremen come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Freiburg to win. Freiburg are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.1), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.12, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Werder Bremen only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 51%, so it's far from a lock.
