How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Leverkusen and 1.2 from Freiburg, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Leverkusen come into this on four straight wins. Freiburg come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.3 goals between the two (xG 2.1-1.2), landing about 65% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Leverkusen have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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