Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig prediction

RB LeipzigLLWWL

What to expect

We expect about 3.0 goals from Bayern Munich and 1.3 from RB Leipzig, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Bayern Munich come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.0-1.3), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say

✓Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.

✓RB Leipzig have won two of their last five.

✓Five of the last five meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

17 Jan 2026RB Leipzig 1 - 5 Bayern Munich

22 Aug 2025Bayern Munich 6 - 0 RB Leipzig

3 May 2025RB Leipzig 3 - 3 Bayern Munich

20 Dec 2024Bayern Munich 5 - 1 RB Leipzig

24 Feb 2024Bayern Munich 2 - 1 RB Leipzig

Bayern Munich have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.

The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →

More Bundesliga fixtures

Full fixture list

18:30

DortmundvWerder Bremen

★★★★★

This is about Werder Bremen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.

Top pickWerder Bremen to score 1 or fewer · 1.31Share

13:30

AugsburgvBayern Munich

★★★★★

This should be an open game: we make it around 4.0 goals between the two (xG 1.2-2.7), landing about 79% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

Match outlookOver 2.5 goals · 1.14Share

13:30

HoffenheimvHamburg

★★★★★

This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 2.3-1.1), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

Match outlookOver 2.5 goals · 1.35Share

13:30

MainzvLeverkusen

★★★★★

Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 65%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

Match outlookBoth teams to score · 1.46Share