How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Bayern Munich to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from Bayern Munich and 1.2 from RB Leipzig, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Bayern Munich come into this on two straight draws. RB Leipzig come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-1.2), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Bayern Munich have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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