What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Union Berlin and 1.3 from Schalke 04, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.3), landing about 59% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. The price is shorter than our own read of about 59%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
