What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Como 1907 and 1.5 from RB Leipzig, so RB Leipzig come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
RB Leipzig come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: RB Leipzig to win. RB Leipzig shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make them about 53% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.24, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Como 1907 only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We only make this about 53%, so it's far from a lock.
