How it turned out
The game finished with 2 goals. We made Over 2.5 goals 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. Goals expected. The model projects about 3.2 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
What the numbers say
✓Fenerbahçe have won one of their last five.
✓Sturm Graz are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. At around 66% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.