How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Barcelona to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Galatasaray and 2.5 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Galatasaray come into this on two straight wins. Barcelona come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barcelona to win. Barcelona shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-2.5), and we make them about 60% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Barcelona have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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