How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Inter to win 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Inter and 1.4 from Club Brugge, so Inter come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Club Brugge come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.4), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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