What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Lens and 2.0 from Sp Lisbon, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sp Lisbon come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sp Lisbon to win. Sp Lisbon shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.7-2.0), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.77, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
