What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Man City and 1.0 from Paris SG, so Man City come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Man City come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Man City (Draw No Bet). Man City are favoured here (xG 2.3-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Man City defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
