RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 4.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made RB Leipzig to win 63%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.8 goals from RB Leipzig and 1.5 from PSV Eindhoven, so RB Leipzig come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: RB Leipzig to win. RB Leipzig are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-1.5), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.78, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.